Pakistan (99% from Qatar, 1–2 weeks storage), Bangladesh (70%, textile sector shutting down), and Taiwan (33%, island with no pipeline) face the worst exposure. No alternative supplier can close the gap.
Qatar LNG Offline (3-5 Years)
Pakistan LNG From Qatar/UAE
European Gas Prices Since War
Iranian missiles hit Qatar‘s Ras Laffan complex on March 18, destroying LNG Trains S4 and S6 and one gas-to-liquids facility. QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi confirmed the damage: 12.8 million tonnes of LNG per year offline, 17% of Qatar’s export capacity, repairs estimated at 3 to 5 years.
Ras Laffan produces roughly 20% of the world’s LNG. European benchmark gas prices have doubled since the war started on February 28, surging another 35% on the day of the attack. The global LNG shortfall now stands at 3.5% — and there is not enough spare capacity anywhere on earth to close the gap.
We scored 17 countries on how exposed they are to the loss of Qatari gas. Three of them have no backup at all.
The DropThe LNG Dependency Index 2026
For each country: what share of total gas supply comes from Qatari LNG, whether pipeline alternatives exist, and how many days of storage buffer they hold. Countries that import heavily from Qatar with no pipeline fallback and minimal storage are in crisis. Countries with diversified suppliers and domestic production absorb the hit.
The Countries With No Backup
| Country | Qatar Share of LNG | Qatar as % Total Gas | Pipeline? | Storage | Vulnerability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan | 99% | ~45% | None | 1-2 weeks | CRITICAL |
| Bangladesh | ~70% | ~35% | None | Minimal | CRITICAL |
| Taiwan | ~33% | ~30% | None (island) | Limited | CRITICAL |
| India | ~40-50% | ~20% | Minimal | Low | HIGH |
| Thailand | ~43% | ~15% | Myanmar (declining) | Low | HIGH |
| South Korea | ~15% | ~14% | None | 3.5 Mt buffer | HIGH |
| Singapore | ~60% | ~6% | MY/ID pipes (expiring 2028) | Limited | HIGH |
| China | ~23% | ~10% | Russia + Central Asia + domestic | Large | MODERATE |
| Japan | ~5-6% | ~5% | None, but diversified (AU 40%) | High | MODERATE |
| Italy | ~30% of LNG | ~8% | Algeria, Libya, Norway, Azerbaijan | Adequate | MODERATE |
| Poland | ~17% | ~10% | Norway (Baltic Pipe) | Adequate | MODERATE |
| Germany | Small (~2 Mt) | ~3-4% | Norway (39% of imports) | Large | LOW |
| Turkey | Small | ~3-5% | Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran | Moderate | LOW |
| United Kingdom | ~1% | <1% | North Sea + Norway | Large | LOW |
| France | Small | ~2% | Norway + nuclear (70% of electricity) | Large | LOW |
| Spain | Small | ~2% | Algeria (Medgaz pipeline) | Adequate | LOW |
| Netherlands | Small | ~1-2% | Groningen (limited) + Norway | Hub | LOW |
Pakistan: 99% Dependency, 1-2 Weeks of Storage
Pakistan gets 99% of its LNG from Qatar and the UAE. It has 1 to 2 weeks of storage. Gas rationing is already in effect. Industrial output is collapsing. There is no pipeline from any direction that can deliver gas fast enough to prevent cascading power cuts.
This is not an economic inconvenience. For a country of 240 million people where gas powers both electricity generation and fertilizer production, a sustained LNG cutoff means blackouts and food production risk within weeks.
Bangladesh: Textile Sector Shutting Down
Bangladesh imports roughly 70% of its LNG from Qatar and the UAE. The country already ran a structural gas deficit of 1,300 MMCF per day before the crisis. Four-hour daily CNG cuts are now standard. The textile and garment sector, which accounts for 80% of Bangladesh’s exports, faces curtailment as gas supply shrinks.
For Bangladesh, this is not about heating bills. It is about whether the economy’s only export engine can keep running.
Taiwan: An Island With Zero Alternatives
Taiwan gets 33% of its LNG from Qatar. It is an island. There are no pipeline options. 98% of its energy is imported. If Qatar’s shortfall is not replaced by spot cargoes from Australia, the US, or elsewhere, Taiwan faces a structural gas deficit with no physical workaround.
Can Anyone Fill the Gap?
The Qatar Financial Centre’s assessment: global spare capacity is “insufficient” to replace lost Qatari LNG. The numbers confirm it.
| Alternative Supplier | Spare Capacity | Can They Help? |
|---|---|---|
| United States | ~5% (95-98% utilization) | Marginal. Most output under long-term contracts. |
| Australia | Near full capacity | No significant ramp. Legacy projects declining. |
| Russia | Yamal LNG operational | Sanctioned by EU/US. Available to China/India only. |
| Mozambique | First LNG: 2029 | Three years away. |
| Nigeria | Aging facilities | Output declining, not expanding. |
| New US projects (CP2) | FID reached March 2026 | Not producing before 2028-2029. |
The math: the global shortfall is approximately 5.8 million tonnes per month. Global alternative spare capacity is under 2 million tonnes. The gap is physically impossible to close quickly. Morgan Stanley’s assessment: any disruption lasting more than one month creates outright shortage.
Before the war, the 2026 LNG market was expected to have a surplus of 6 million tonnes from new projects. The Ras Laffan damage flipped that to a deficit. The buyer’s market is over.
The Price Signal
European TTF benchmark gas averaged 32 EUR/MWh in February. It hit 74 EUR/MWh on March 19. That is a 110% increase in three weeks. Asian JKM benchmark is up 39% since the disruption began. These are not spikes that correct in days. The structural loss of 12.8 million tonnes per year means elevated prices for as long as the capacity stays offline — 3 to 5 years per QatarEnergy’s own estimate.
For Europe, the timing is brutal. The continent spent 2022-2025 weaning itself off Russian pipeline gas and replacing it with LNG. Now the LNG itself is under threat. Germany and France have enough pipeline and storage diversity to absorb it. Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Taiwan do not.
Sources: CNBC. “Iran attack wipes out 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity for up to five years.” March 19, 2026. (link) | Bloomberg. “Iran Strike Damages 17% of Qatar LNG for 3-5 Years.” (link) | Al Jazeera. “Qatar says Iran attack caused significant damage at Ras Laffan.” (link) | Gulf Times. “Global spare capacity insufficient to replace Qatar LNG.” (link) | Vortexa. “Korea, Taiwan, Singapore vulnerable to lost Qatari LNG.” (link)